The Stockdale Paradox
The Rev. Eric Johnson, president of the Southern District, photo: https://reporter.lcms.org/2018/hurricane-michael-affects-churches-members-in-florida/johnson-3/
by the Rev. Eric Johnson
One of the personal organizing principles I have adopted is called the Stockdale Paradox.
Admiral Stockdale was the ranking U.S. prisoner of war in Vietnam. He observed that men who clung to unfounded optimism were the men who failed and died as POW’s but those who faced their brutal circumstances head-on, and at the same time kept faith that they would prevail, are the ones who survived and even thrived in difficult times.
The Stockdale Paradox in a Christian Context
Clearly and unflinchingly confront the brutal realities of your current situation - while at the same time (paradox) - retain unwavering faith that through the finished work of Christ you will prevail in the end.
We are living in a time of genuine brutal realities, especially for the church. Rapidly declining numbers, congregations declining, struggling and dying. Finances drying up. Fear, anger, distrust, infighting, bickering, despair, loss of hope, faith, and trust. In the face of the bad news, we can:
Be overly optimistic and pretend that everything is okay,
We can become fearful and reactionary,
We can look our present struggles in the eye, confront the brutal realities, while at the same time having faith that Jesus Christ is true to his Word and he will never leave us nor forsake us.
I choose to be brutally honest about our present reality, and at the same time have faith that God in Christ is at work in our lives and the lives of all those around us, our neighbors.
Christ created His church, He keeps and maintains His church, and He has called His church to be His witnesses in a world that too easily gets caught up in the brutal realities of life. No matter what happens in our communities, no matter what political change and upheaval occurs in our national life, no matter what happens in the life of some local congregations, the church of Jesus Christ stands; not as an institution dependent upon politics and power, but the church stands as the very body of Jesus Christ in the world!
We deal with fear and anxiety by following Matthew 18:15-17. We confront fear and anxiety in ourselves and in others by following Luther’s admonition on the 8th Commandment, especially the expanded treatment found in the Large Catechism. As Confessional Lutherans, we are bound by our Confession to believe, teach, and confess such. I remind you of these things and encourage you to remind your people.
Let us walk boldly into the reality of our world, walking together in the unity of the faith in the name of Jesus Christ. Not losing heart. Not reacting in fear. Not trying to prop up organizations, institutions, and political power, but simply being witnesses of the sure and certain hope we have in Jesus Christ. We are witnesses that God has chosen not to condemn hurt, broken, sinners, but instead to save them, heal them, restore them, adopt them, remove their guilt, pour his Spirit into them, use them in service to their neighbor, and ultimately to bring them home where they will be made complete, whole, safe, and saved through Jesus Christ whose Gospel is God’s power of salvation for all who hear the Gospel through the means of grace and believe.
Because of what Jesus has done and continues to do for us, and through us to others, we can look our present brutal truth in the eye unflinching because at the same time we have unwavering faith in him who has called us, justified us, sanctifies us, and will complete his work in and through us, as we have unwavering faith in Jesus Christ our Lord!
Reprinted with permission from The Southern District Beacon, February, 2026 — Ed.